Riding profile

Haute-Savoie — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Savoie

The question

Haute-Savoie — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Haute-Savoie — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Savoie, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 31% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Virginie DUBY-MULLER

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 37.9%
  • RN and allies 31.4%
  • Left (NFP) 26.2%
  • Others 3.8%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereHaute-Savoie — 4ème circonscription 37.9%31.4%26.2%3.8%
Provincial averageHaute-Savoie 17.2% +20.7 35.9% −4.5 23.4% +2.9 3.7% +0.1
National averageFrance 12.2% +25.7 36.0% −4.5 29.5% −3.2 3.9% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Virginie DUBY-MULLER Elected LR and allies 20,865 37.3 —
Magalie LUHO RN and allies 16,159 28.9 —
Dominique LACHENAL Left (NFP) 15,331 27.4 —
Alexandre GIANESELLO Centre (Ensemble) 2,265 4.0 —
Barbara LEMMO GAUD Others 945 1.7 —
Cécile ROCHE Far left 371 0.7 —
Jean-Marc LORENZO Others 83 0.1 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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