Riding profile

Haute-Savoie — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Savoie

The question

Haute-Savoie — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Haute-Savoie — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Savoie, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Antoine ARMAND

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
67%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
53%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 32.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.2%
  • Left (NFP) 26.0%
  • LR and allies 8.7%
  • Others 3.5%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereHaute-Savoie — 2ème circonscription 32.9%28.2%26.0%8.7%
Provincial averageHaute-Savoie 35.9% −3.0 28.6% −0.4 23.4% +2.6 17.2% −8.5
National averageFrance 36.0% −3.1 20.6% +7.6 29.5% −3.5 12.2% −3.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Antoine ARMAND Elected Centre (Ensemble) 23,783 33.3 —
Anis BOUVARD RN and allies 20,583 28.8 —
Guillaume TATU Left (NFP) 19,215 26.9 —
Alexandre RICHEFORT LR and allies 5,396 7.5 —
Jérémy LANGLADE-NOUCHY Others 1,077 1.5 —
Pascale VINCENT RN and allies 872 1.2 —
Naci YILDIRIM Far left 411 0.6 —
Geoffrey CORNET Far left 139 0.2 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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