Riding profile

Ain — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ain

The question

Ain — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Ain — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ain, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 35% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Olga GIVERNET

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
61%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
77%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 35.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 27.3%
  • Left (NFP) 24.3%
  • LR and allies 8.0%
  • Others 3.2%
  • Sovereignists 1.5%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereAin — 3ème circonscription 35.0%27.3%24.3%8.0%
Provincial averageAin 42.7% −7.7 15.4% +12.0 22.5% +1.8 15.8% −7.8
National averageFrance 36.0% −1.0 20.6% +6.7 29.5% −5.2 12.2% −4.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Olga GIVERNET Elected Centre (Ensemble) 17,420 32.4 —
Karine DUBARRY RN and allies 17,252 32.1 —
Christian JOLIE Left (NFP) 13,497 25.1 —
Khadija UNAL LR and allies 3,663 6.8 —
Annick VEILLEROT Sovereignists 769 1.4 —
Fulgence KOUASSI Others 630 1.2 —
Cécile MAISONNETTE Far left 455 0.8 —
Sofia TONIZZO Others 34 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next