Riding profile

Ain — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Ain

The question

Ain — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Ain — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Ain, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 43% vote share, against 24% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Marc CHAVENT

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 43.0%
  • Left (NFP) 23.6%
  • LR and allies 23.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 6.8%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies Centre (Ensemble)
HereAin — 5ème circonscription 43.0%23.6%23.1%6.8%
Provincial averageAin 42.7% +0.3 22.5% +1.1 15.8% +7.4 15.4% −8.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +7.0 29.5% −5.9 12.2% +10.9 20.6% −13.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Marc CHAVENT Elected RN and allies 20,161 39.1 —
Florence PISANI Left (NFP) 12,542 24.3 —
Damien ABAD LR and allies 9,651 18.7 —
Nathalie DESCOURS Centre (Ensemble) 6,036 11.7 —
Fabrice BOURDIN LR and allies 1,623 3.1 —
Sylvie CROZET Far left 606 1.2 —
Thomas CHATELARD Greens 484 0.9 —
Maria Cristina PATRU RN and allies 429 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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