Riding profile

Jura — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Jura

The question

Jura — 3ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Jura — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Jura, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 41% vote share, against 34% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Justine GRUET

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Toss-up

Probability
68%
Mean margin (pts)
6.8
P(close race)
65%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.5%
  • LR and allies 33.7%
  • Left (NFP) 22.3%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereJura — 3ème circonscription 40.5%33.7%22.3%1.9%
Provincial averageJura 39.1% +1.4 24.2% +9.5 22.4% −0.1 1.9%
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.6 12.2% +21.5 29.5% −7.2 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+6.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aurore VUILLEMIN-PLANCON RN and allies 19,354 39.7
Justine GRUET Elected LR and allies 16,727 34.3
Hervé PRAT Left (NFP) 11,834 24.3
Dominique REVOY Far left 796 1.6
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next