Riding profile

Finistère — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Finistère

The question

Finistère — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Finistère — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Finistère, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 35% vote share, against 31% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Pierre-Yves CADALEN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
81%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
35%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 34.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 30.6%
  • RN and allies 26.4%
  • LR and allies 4.0%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Greens 1.5%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies LR and allies
HereFinistère — 2ème circonscription 34.5%30.6%26.4%4.0%
Provincial averageFinistère 32.1% +2.5 27.0% +3.6 30.0% −3.6 6.3% −2.3
National averageFrance 29.5% +5.1 20.6% +10.0 36.0% −9.5 12.2% −8.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Pierre-Yves CADALEN Elected Left (NFP) 18,850 35.3 —
Denis KERVELLA RN and allies 12,065 22.6 —
Jean-Charles LARSONNEUR Centre (Ensemble) 9,874 18.5 —
Tristan BRÉHIER Centre (Ensemble) 9,105 17.0 —
Françoise HOUARD LR and allies 1,444 2.7 —
Geneviève HENRY Greens 1,131 2.1 —
Alain ROUSSEAU RN and allies 373 0.7 —
Rémy COLLARD Far left 357 0.7 —
Melvyn HITA Far left 172 0.3 —
Martial KOFFI RN and allies 55 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next