Riding profile

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Alpes-de-Haute-Provence

The question

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christian GIRARD

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 48.2%
  • Left (NFP) 26.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 14.3%
  • LR and allies 8.2%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereAlpes-de-Haute-Provence — 1ère circonscription 48.2%26.4%14.3%8.2%
Provincial averageAlpes-de-Haute-Provence 46.6% +1.6 29.2% −2.8 16.0% −1.7 5.3% +2.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +12.2 29.5% −3.1 20.6% −6.3 12.2% −4.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christian GIRARD Elected RN and allies 18,616 44.3 —
Felix BLANC Left (NFP) 11,457 27.3 —
Benoit GAUVAN Centre (Ensemble) 8,132 19.4 —
Sandra RAPONI LR and allies 2,956 7.0 —
Patricia CAMPART RN and allies 468 1.1 —
Annabel ROS Far left 396 0.9 —
Nadia LAKHLEF TSALAMLAL LR and allies 1 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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