Riding profile

Var — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 8ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Var — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Philippe SCHRECK

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.3%
  • Left (NFP) 19.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 10.8%
  • LR and allies 10.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVar — 8ème circonscription 56.3%19.2%10.8%10.4%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% +1.8 16.7% +2.5 17.7% −6.9 8.3% +2.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.3 29.5% −10.2 20.6% −9.7 12.2% −1.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+37.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philippe SCHRECK Elected RN and allies 38,433 53.5
Sarah BREFFY Left (NFP) 14,420 20.1
Rayann MOUSLIM Centre (Ensemble) 11,368 15.8
Frank PANIZZI LR and allies 6,639 9.3
Ludovic MARTIN Far left 915 1.3
Francis COMBE Others 0 0.0
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next