Riding profile

Var — 6ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 6ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Var — 6ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 55% vote share, against 24% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frank GILETTI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
30.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 55.3%
  • LR and allies 24.4%
  • Left (NFP) 15.5%
  • Others 4.1%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereVar — 6ème circonscription 55.3%24.4%15.5%4.1%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% +0.8 8.3% +16.0 16.7% −1.2 2.4% +1.6
National averageFrance 36.0% +19.3 12.2% +12.1 29.5% −14.0 3.9% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+30.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frank GILETTI Elected RN and allies 45,882 53.5 —
Fabrice ALBERT LR and allies 15,451 18.0 —
Sylvie VINCENEUX Left (NFP) 14,683 17.1 —
Frédéric HERBAUT LR and allies 5,527 6.5 —
Didier CADE Others 1,968 2.3 —
Sandra CAHOREAU RN and allies 1,508 1.8 —
Louis GUEYRARD Far left 726 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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