Riding profile

Var — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Var — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 48% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Yannick CHENEVARD

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.4
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 47.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.3%
  • Left (NFP) 21.5%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 1.2%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Others
HereVar — 1ère circonscription 47.7%26.3%21.5%2.0%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% −6.8 17.7% +8.5 16.7% +4.8 2.4% −0.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +11.7 20.6% +5.7 29.5% −8.0 3.9% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sébastien SOULÉ RN and allies 19,233 42.3 —
Yannick CHENEVARD Elected Centre (Ensemble) 14,270 31.4 —
Eric HABOUZIT Left (NFP) 10,182 22.4 —
Guillaume TCHAKMAKDJIAN RN and allies 1,197 2.6 —
Marie-Renée BALTY Far left 610 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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