Riding profile

Var — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 7ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Var — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 17% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frédéric BOCCALETTI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 52.6%
  • Left (NFP) 17.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.3%
  • LR and allies 8.8%
  • Greens 2.4%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVar — 7ème circonscription 52.6%17.2%16.3%8.8%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% −1.8 16.7% +0.5 17.7% −1.4 8.3% +0.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +16.7 29.5% −12.3 20.6% −4.2 12.2% −3.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+35.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frédéric BOCCALETTI Elected RN and allies 32,748 48.3 —
Cécile MUSCHOTTI Centre (Ensemble) 12,567 18.5 —
Claudie CARTEREAU Left (NFP) 12,166 17.9 —
Sandra KUNTZ LR and allies 5,129 7.6 —
Sébastien GIOIA Centre (Ensemble) 1,870 2.8 —
Laurile KOSCIELSKI Greens 1,169 1.7 —
Mathieu REHO RN and allies 887 1.3 —
Marie-Eve PERRU Greens 819 1.2 —
Patrice CIUTI Far left 381 0.6 —
Christèle GUENIOT-DESMAZURES Sovereignists 71 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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