Riding profile

Var — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Var — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 52% vote share, against 18% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphane RAMBAUD

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 51.5%
  • Left (NFP) 17.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 15.3%
  • LR and allies 10.0%
  • Others 2.8%
  • Greens 2.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereVar — 3ème circonscription 51.5%17.7%15.3%10.0%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% −2.9 16.7% +1.0 17.7% −2.5 8.3% +1.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +15.5 29.5% −11.8 20.6% −5.3 12.2% −2.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+33.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphane RAMBAUD Elected RN and allies 32,343 46.5 —
Isabelle MONFORT Centre (Ensemble) 14,057 20.2 —
Julia PEIRONET BREMOND Left (NFP) 12,839 18.5 —
Julien SAVELLI LR and allies 6,117 8.8 —
Charles MALOT Greens 1,574 2.3 —
Odile JUDICE RN and allies 1,369 2.0 —
Delphine ROLLAND Others 531 0.8 —
Alexis DOMINIAK Greens 455 0.7 —
Pierre DEIDON Far left 259 0.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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