Riding profile

Var — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Var — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 56% vote share, against 19% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Laure LAVALETTE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.4%
  • Left (NFP) 18.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.8%
  • Greens 3.6%
  • Others 2.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Greens
HereVar — 2ème circonscription 56.4%18.6%16.8%3.6%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% +1.9 16.7% +1.8 17.7% −1.0 2.8% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.4 29.5% −10.9 20.6% −3.8 2.1% +1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+37.8 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laure LAVALETTE Elected RN and allies 30,551 50.8 —
Josy CHAMBON Centre (Ensemble) 13,061 21.7 —
Isaline CORNIL Left (NFP) 11,613 19.3 —
Olivier LESAGE Greens 2,500 4.2 —
Julia BONNEFOY RN and allies 1,506 2.5 —
Jean-Michel GHIOTTO Far left 493 0.8 —
Florian FIMBEL Others 405 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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