Riding profile

Var — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Var — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 59% vote share, against 21% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Philippe LOTTIAUX

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 59.2%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 21.3%
  • Left (NFP) 12.3%
  • Greens 3.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) Greens
HereVar — 4ème circonscription 59.2%21.3%12.3%3.1%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% +4.7 17.7% +3.6 16.7% −4.5 2.8% +0.4
National averageFrance 36.0% +23.2 20.6% +0.7 29.5% −17.2 2.1% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+37.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philippe LOTTIAUX Elected RN and allies 40,631 56.1 —
Sereine MAUBORGNE Centre (Ensemble) 18,994 26.2 —
Sabine CRISTOFANI-VIGLIONE Left (NFP) 9,416 13.0 —
Guillaume ROBAA Greens 2,697 3.7 —
Pascale MOREL Far left 677 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next