Riding profile

Var — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Var

The question

Var — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Var — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Var, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 57% vote share, against 17% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julie LECHANTEUX

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
39.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 56.7%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 17.3%
  • Left (NFP) 11.9%
  • LR and allies 9.2%
  • Greens 2.5%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereVar — 5ème circonscription 56.7%17.3%11.9%9.2%
Provincial averageVar 54.4% +2.2 17.7% −0.4 16.7% −4.9 8.3% +0.8
National averageFrance 36.0% +20.7 20.6% −3.3 29.5% −17.6 12.2% −3.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+39.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julie LECHANTEUX Elected RN and allies 34,496 51.5 —
Philippe MICHEL-KLEISBAUER Centre (Ensemble) 14,890 22.2 —
Aurelien LACOUR Left (NFP) 8,450 12.6 —
Danièle LOMBARD LR and allies 5,304 7.9 —
Hélène Charlotte DE BUSSCHÈRE Greens 2,058 3.1 —
Vincent THIERY RN and allies 1,429 2.1 —
Rémi KRANZER Far left 342 0.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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