Riding profile

Alpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Alpes-Maritimes

The question

Alpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription: will LR and allies lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Alpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Alpes-Maritimes, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 26% for the LR right, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Eric PAUGET

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
14.7
P(close race)
26%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 40.8%
  • LR and allies 26.1%
  • Left (NFP) 15.9%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 12.5%
  • Others 2.3%
  • Greens 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble)
HereAlpes-Maritimes — 7ème circonscription 40.8%26.1%15.9%12.5%
Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes 48.5% −7.7 15.7% +10.5 18.5% −2.6 13.8% −1.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +4.8 12.2% +13.9 29.5% −13.6 20.6% −8.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Thierry FERRAND RN and allies 23,921 36.3 —
Eric PAUGET Elected LR and allies 16,389 24.9 —
Aline ABRAVANEL Centre (Ensemble) 11,510 17.5 —
Arthur MEYER-ABBATUCCI Left (NFP) 10,974 16.7 —
Marylin ZBIROU Greens 1,651 2.5 —
David QUINTELA RN and allies 932 1.4 —
Christian PETARD Far left 264 0.4 —
Enzo DEWASMES Others 225 0.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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