Riding profile

Alpes-Maritimes — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Alpes-Maritimes

The question

Alpes-Maritimes — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Alpes-Maritimes — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Alpes-Maritimes, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 44% vote share, against 26% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Eric CIOTTI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 18.2
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 44.1%
Left (NFP) 25.9%
Centre (Ensemble) 17.9%
LR and allies 7.0%
Others 2.3%
Greens 2.2%
Far left 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereAlpes-Maritimes — 1ère circonscription	44.1%	25.9%	17.9%	7.0%
Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes	48.5% −4.4	18.5% +7.4	13.8% +4.1	15.7% −8.6
National averageFrance	36.0% +8.1	29.5% −3.6	20.6% −2.7	12.2% −5.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+18.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Eric CIOTTI Elected	RN and allies	20,809	41.0	—
Olivier SALERNO	Left (NFP)	13,499	26.6	—
Graig MONETTI	Centre (Ensemble)	11,558	22.8	—
Virgile VANIER-GUÉRIN	LR and allies	2,933	5.8	—
Lalla Chama BEN MOULAY	Greens	1,427	2.8	—
Alain LANGOUET	Far left	313	0.6	—
Jean-Claude Wahid SPACH	Others	136	0.3	—
Maxime BOVIS	Others	34	0.1	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next