Riding profile

Alpes-Maritimes — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Alpes-Maritimes

The question

Alpes-Maritimes — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Alpes-Maritimes — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Alpes-Maritimes, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 59% vote share, against 17% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Alexandra MASSON

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 41.9
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 59.3%
Centre (Ensemble) 17.4%
Left (NFP) 15.7%
Greens 3.5%
Others 2.0%
LR and allies 1.2%
Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Centre (Ensemble)	Left (NFP)	Greens
HereAlpes-Maritimes — 4ème circonscription	59.3%	17.4%	15.7%	3.5%
Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes	48.5% +10.8	13.8% +3.6	18.5% −2.8	2.6% +0.9
National averageFrance	36.0% +23.3	20.6% −3.2	29.5% −13.7	2.1% +1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+41.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Alexandra MASSON Elected	RN and allies	30,528	56.3	—
Anne-Pascale GUEDON	Centre (Ensemble)	12,116	22.3	—
Virginie PARENT	Left (NFP)	8,935	16.5	—
Christine BEYL	Greens	2,216	4.1	—
Joseph MARKIEL	Far left	454	0.8	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next