Riding profile

Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Alpes-Maritimes

The question

Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Alpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Alpes-Maritimes, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 53% vote share, against 18% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lionel TIVOLI

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 34.4
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

RN and allies 52.7%
Left (NFP) 18.3%
Centre (Ensemble) 11.6%
LR and allies 11.6%
Greens 3.3%
Others 2.0%
Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	RN and allies	Left (NFP)	Centre (Ensemble)	LR and allies
HereAlpes-Maritimes — 2ème circonscription	52.7%	18.3%	11.6%	11.6%
Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes	48.5% +4.2	18.5% −0.2	13.8% −2.2	15.7% −4.1
National averageFrance	36.0% +16.7	29.5% −11.2	20.6% −9.0	12.2% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

RN and allies

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+34.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Lionel TIVOLI Elected	RN and allies	28,676	48.1	—
Leïla TONNERRE	Left (NFP)	11,339	19.0	—
David VARRONE	Centre (Ensemble)	9,856	16.5	—
Simon DARAGON	LR and allies	6,162	10.3	—
Patrice MIRAN	Greens	2,296	3.9	—
Indiana PORET-RINCK	RN and allies	931	1.6	—
Florent IMBERT	Far left	381	0.6	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next