Riding profile

Alpes-Maritimes — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Alpes-Maritimes

The question

Alpes-Maritimes — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Alpes-Maritimes — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Alpes-Maritimes, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 27% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bernard CHAIX

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 44.5%
  • Left (NFP) 26.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 20.4%
  • Greens 3.1%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Sovereignists 1.6%
  • LR and allies 1.2%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) Greens
HereAlpes-Maritimes — 3ème circonscription 44.5%26.5%20.4%3.1%
Provincial averageAlpes-Maritimes 48.5% −4.0 18.5% +8.0 13.8% +6.7 2.6% +0.5
National averageFrance 36.0% +8.5 29.5% −3.0 20.6% −0.2 2.1% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+18.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bernard CHAIX Elected RN and allies 23,983 41.5 —
Laure QUIGNARD Left (NFP) 15,754 27.2 —
Philippe PRADAL Centre (Ensemble) 14,670 25.4 —
Marie Françoise CAUSSIN Greens 1,675 2.9 —
Thibault DELHEZ Sovereignists 883 1.5 —
Estelle JAQUET Far left 438 0.8 —
Marjorie VIVO Greens 434 0.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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