Riding profile

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Alpes-de-Haute-Provence

The question

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the RN and its allies?

Editorial read

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 45% vote share, against 32% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sophie VAGINAY

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

RN and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 45.0%
  • Left (NFP) 32.1%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 17.6%
  • LR and allies 2.4%
  • Others 2.0%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereAlpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscription 45.0%32.1%17.6%2.4%
Provincial averageAlpes-de-Haute-Provence 46.6% −1.6 29.2% +2.9 16.0% +1.7 5.3% −2.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +9.0 29.5% +2.6 20.6% −2.9 12.2% −9.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+12.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sophie VAGINAY Elected RN and allies 18,314 40.9 —
Léo WALTER Left (NFP) 14,774 33.0 —
Dominique BLANC Centre (Ensemble) 10,162 22.7 —
Myriam CADENEL RN and allies 585 1.3 —
Loan REYNAUD LR and allies 512 1.1 —
Henri CYVOCT Far left 438 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next