Riding profile
Hautes-Alpes — 1ère circonscription
The question
Hautes-Alpes — 1ère circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to RN and allies?
Editorial read
Hautes-Alpes — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Hautes-Alpes, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 30% for the united left, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Marie-José ALLEMAND
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
RN and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.5
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| RN and allies | Left (NFP) | Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHautes-Alpes — 1ère circonscription | 41.0% | 29.6% | 17.5% | 8.3% |
| Provincial averageHautes-Alpes | 38.9% +2.2 | 30.7% −1.1 | 19.6% −2.0 | 4.8% +3.6 |
| National averageFrance | 36.0% +5.1 | 29.5% +0.1 | 20.6% −3.0 | 12.2% −3.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérôme SAINTE-MARIE | RN and allies | 15,774 | 38.2 | — |
| Marie-José ALLEMAND Elected | Left (NFP) | 12,568 | 30.5 | — |
| Pascale BOYER | Centre (Ensemble) | 9,312 | 22.6 | — |
| Dorian DEININGER | LR and allies | 2,950 | 7.2 | — |
| Véronique BUISSON | Far left | 643 | 1.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Alpes-de-Haute-Provence — 2ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Isère — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Drôme — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Isère — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Hautes-Alpes — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Toss-upOpen →
- Vaucluse — 5ème circonscriptionRN and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next