Riding profile

Côtes-d'Armor — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Côtes-d'Armor

The question

Côtes-d'Armor — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Côtes-d'Armor — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Côtes-d'Armor, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 34% vote share, against 28% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Hervé BERVILLE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
76%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
43%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 33.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 28.5%
  • Left (NFP) 24.8%
  • LR and allies 9.0%
  • Others 3.1%
  • Far left 0.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereCôtes-d'Armor — 2ème circonscription 33.8%28.5%24.8%9.0%
Provincial averageCôtes-d'Armor 32.9% +0.9 24.9% +3.5 27.3% −2.4 10.2% −1.3
National averageFrance 36.0% −2.2 20.6% +7.9 29.5% −4.7 12.2% −3.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hervé BERVILLE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 25,730 33.6 —
Antoine KIEFFER RN and allies 23,707 31.0 —
Jérémy DAUPHIN Left (NFP) 19,685 25.7 —
Michel DESBOIS LR and allies 5,946 7.8 —
Logan MAHEU Others 859 1.1 —
Lucie HERBLIN Far left 636 0.8 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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