Riding profile

Gironde — 8ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Gironde

The question

Gironde — 8ème circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to RN and allies?

Editorial read

Gironde — 8ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Gironde, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the RN and its allies ahead at 41% vote share, against 27% for the centrist bloc, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Sophie PANONACLE

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

RN and allies

Competitive

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
14.3
P(close race)
25%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 41.0%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.6%
  • Left (NFP) 17.9%
  • LR and allies 11.4%
  • Others 2.1%
  • Far left 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereGironde — 8ème circonscription 41.0%26.6%17.9%11.4%
Provincial averageGironde 36.0% +5.0 24.0% +2.6 32.7% −14.9 3.7% +7.7
National averageFrance 36.0% +5.0 20.6% +6.0 29.5% −11.6 12.2% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+14.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laurent LAMARA RN and allies 31,248 36.9 —
Sophie PANONACLE Elected Centre (Ensemble) 26,881 31.7 —
Marylène FAURE Left (NFP) 15,849 18.7 —
Marc MORIN LR and allies 8,673 10.2 —
Marie-Christine CARIES RN and allies 1,090 1.3 —
Rémy COSTE Far left 898 1.1 —
Céline BLUT Others 137 0.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next