Riding profile

Savoie — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Savoie

The question

Savoie — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Savoie — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Savoie, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 37% vote share, against 36% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Vincent ROLLAND

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
1.0
P(close race)
10%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.1%
  • LR and allies 36.1%
  • Left (NFP) 21.1%
  • Others 4.2%
  • Sovereignists 1.0%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereSavoie — 2ème circonscription 37.1%36.1%21.1%4.2%
Provincial averageSavoie 36.9% +0.1 19.6% +16.5 24.7% −3.7 3.1% +1.2
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.1 12.2% +23.9 29.5% −8.4 3.9% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vincent ROLLAND Elected LR and allies 18,593 36.8 —
Pauline RACT-BRANCAZ RN and allies 17,762 35.2 —
Pascale MARTINOT Left (NFP) 11,591 23.0 —
Delphine JAFFRÉ Others 1,244 2.5 —
Mathieu CICERI Sovereignists 488 1.0 —
Morgane BETTOLI RN and allies 441 0.9 —
Myriam RAHALIA Far left 349 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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