Riding profile

Savoie — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Savoie

The question

Savoie — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Savoie — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Savoie, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 40% vote share, against 37% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Emilie BONNIVARD

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
2.9
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 39.9%
  • RN and allies 37.0%
  • Left (NFP) 20.0%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereSavoie — 3ème circonscription 39.9%37.0%20.0%1.9%
Provincial averageSavoie 19.6% +20.3 36.9% +0.1 24.7% −4.8 3.1% −1.2
National averageFrance 12.2% +27.7 36.0% +1.0 29.5% −9.5 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emilie BONNIVARD Elected LR and allies 21,605 40.9
Marie DAUCHY RN and allies 19,023 36.0
Daniel IBANEZ Left (NFP) 11,530 21.8
Pascale TROUVÉ Far left 719 1.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next