Riding profile

Haute-Savoie — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Haute-Savoie

The question

Haute-Savoie — 5ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Haute-Savoie — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Haute-Savoie, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 36% vote share, against 26% for the centrist bloc, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Anne-Cécile VIOLLAND

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Toss-up

Probability
55%
Mean margin (pts)
10.4
P(close race)
89%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 36.4%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.0%
  • Left (NFP) 22.6%
  • LR and allies 8.3%
  • Others 6.1%
  • Far left 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereHaute-Savoie — 5ème circonscription 36.4%26.0%22.6%8.3%
Provincial averageHaute-Savoie 35.9% +0.5 28.6% −2.6 23.4% −0.7 17.2% −8.9
National averageFrance 36.0% +0.4 20.6% +5.4 29.5% −6.8 12.2% −4.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Quentin TAÏEB RN and allies 21,822 32.1 —
Anne-Cécile VIOLLAND Elected Centre (Ensemble) 21,124 31.1 —
Jean-Baptiste BAUD Left (NFP) 15,985 23.5 —
Chrystelle BEURRIER LR and allies 4,800 7.1 —
Daniel MAGNIN Others 1,808 2.7 —
Nicolas BAL Others 987 1.4 —
Sacha POIDEVIN RN and allies 963 1.4 —
Michelle BALLY Far left 484 0.7 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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