Riding profile

Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Guadeloupe

The question

Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Guadeloupe, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 75% vote share, against 12% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Olivier SERVA

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 62.4
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 74.7%
RN and allies 12.3%
Others 9.7%
LR and allies 2.0%
Far left 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	RN and allies	Others	LR and allies
HereGuadeloupe — 1ère circonscription	74.7%	12.3%	9.7%	2.0%
Provincial averageGuadeloupe	59.3% +15.4	19.1% −6.8	11.5% −1.8	3.5% −1.5
National averageFrance	29.5% +45.2	36.0% −23.7	3.9% +5.8	12.2% −10.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+62.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Olivier SERVA Elected	Left (NFP)	12,042	51.4	—
Chantal LERUS	Left (NFP)	2,965	12.7	—
Marvyn MARTOL	Left (NFP)	2,531	10.8	—
Tarius ROYER	RN and allies	2,252	9.6	—
Laurence MAQUIABA	Others	1,583	6.8	—
Alix NABAJOTH	Left (NFP)	1,102	4.7	—
Danielle DIAKOK	Far left	336	1.4	—
Dieudonné MBALA MBALA	Others	241	1.0	—
Rudy Fiacre FARO	LR and allies	197	0.8	—
Tony REBUS	Others	104	0.4	—
Rosemary ARMANTRADING	RN and allies	77	0.3	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next