Riding profile

Martinique — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Martinique

The question

Martinique — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Martinique — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Martinique, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 62% vote share, against 21% for another bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Beatrice BELLAY

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability: 100%
Mean margin (pts): 40.7
P(close race): 0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Left (NFP) 61.9%
Others 21.2%
RN and allies 11.9%
LR and allies 3.1%
Far left 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

	Left (NFP)	Others	RN and allies	LR and allies
HereMartinique — 3ème circonscription	61.9%	21.2%	11.9%	3.1%
Provincial averageMartinique	20.1% +41.8	51.2% −30.0	12.4% −0.5	12.7% −9.6
National averageFrance	29.5% +32.4	3.9% +17.3	36.0% −24.1	12.2% −9.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by

Left (NFP)

Margin

0.0 pts

Margin shift vs current projection

+40.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Johnny HAJJAR	Left (NFP)	6,626	37.3	—
Beatrice BELLAY Elected	Left (NFP)	4,489	25.3	—
Francis CAROLE	Others	2,617	14.7	—
Max FERRATY	RN and allies	1,684	9.5	—
Nathalie JOS	Others	1,010	5.7	—
Frédérique DISPAGNE	Left (NFP)	624	3.5	—
Mélanie SULIO	Far left	363	2.0	—
Emmanuel GRANIER	LR and allies	361	2.0	—

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run: July 11, 2026
Cycle: fr_leg_next