Riding profile

Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Guadeloupe

The question

Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Guadeloupe, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 57% vote share, against 17% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Elie CALIFER

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 56.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 16.8%
  • RN and allies 15.8%
  • Far left 6.3%
  • Others 3.0%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Centre (Ensemble) RN and allies Far left
HereGuadeloupe — 4ème circonscription 56.8%16.8%15.8%6.3%
Provincial averageGuadeloupe 59.3% −2.5 16.8% 19.1% −3.3 3.1% +3.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +27.3 20.6% −3.8 36.0% −20.2 1.1% +5.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+40.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Elie CALIFER Elected Left (NFP) 12,617 57.9 —
Jennifer LINON Centre (Ensemble) 4,763 21.9 —
Lydie Marie MONTHOUËL RN and allies 2,570 11.8 —
Jean-Marie NOMERTIN Far left 1,396 6.4 —
Claudia BOUCHER Others 225 1.0 —
Paola PLANTIER RN and allies 221 1.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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