Riding profile

Martinique — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Martinique

The question

Martinique — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for another bloc?

Editorial read

Martinique — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Martinique, elected a member with another bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another bloc ahead at 69% vote share, against 12% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jiovanny WILLIAM

Sits with Others

Current forecast

Others

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
56.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Others 69.0%
  • RN and allies 12.4%
  • Left (NFP) 10.4%
  • LR and allies 3.6%
  • Far left 2.6%
  • Greens 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Others RN and allies Left (NFP) LR and allies
HereMartinique — 1ère circonscription 69.0%12.4%10.4%3.6%
Provincial averageMartinique 51.2% +17.8 12.4% +0.1 20.1% −9.7 12.7% −9.1
National averageFrance 3.9% +65.1 36.0% −23.6 29.5% −19.1 12.2% −8.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Others
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+56.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jiovanny WILLIAM Elected Others 13,095 56.6 —
Philippe EDMOND-MARIETTE Others 3,106 13.4 —
Alain-Claude LAGIER Left (NFP) 2,690 11.6 —
Cédric CRAMPON RN and allies 2,312 10.0 —
Gabriel JEAN-MARIE Far left 665 2.9 —
Yann MIEVILLY Greens 599 2.6 —
Sylvain HOCHE LR and allies 584 2.5 —
Fabrice FIARI Others 100 0.4 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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