Riding profile
Martinique — 4ème circonscription
The question
Martinique — 4ème circonscription: a safe seat for another bloc?
Editorial read
Martinique — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Martinique, elected a member with another bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another bloc ahead at 67% vote share, against 12% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jean-Philippe NILOR
Sits with Others
Current forecast
Others
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 54.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Others | RN and allies | LR and allies | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMartinique — 4ème circonscription | 67.1% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Provincial averageMartinique | 51.2% +15.9 | 12.4% −0.1 | 12.7% −2.5 | 4.9% +2.9 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9% +63.2 | 36.0% −23.7 | 12.2% −2.0 | 2.1% +5.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Philippe NILOR Elected | Others | 15,405 | 63.2 | — |
| Grégory Michel ROY-LARENTRY | RN and allies | 2,408 | 9.9 | — |
| Philippe PETIT | LR and allies | 2,316 | 9.5 | — |
| Louis BOUTRIN | Greens | 1,538 | 6.3 | — |
| Aude GOUSSARD | Others | 1,294 | 5.3 | — |
| Yvette GALOT | Left (NFP) | 824 | 3.4 | — |
| Karine THERESE | Greens | 599 | 2.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Martinique — 1ère circonscriptionOthers Safe seatOpen →
- Martinique — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Martinique — 2ème circonscriptionOthers Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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