Riding profile

Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Guadeloupe

The question

Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Guadeloupe, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 60% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Max MATHIASIN

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 59.7%
  • RN and allies 28.6%
  • Others 8.8%
  • Far left 1.7%
  • LR and allies 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Others Far left
HereGuadeloupe — 3ème circonscription 59.7%28.6%8.8%1.7%
Provincial averageGuadeloupe 59.3% +0.4 19.1% +9.5 11.5% −2.7 3.1% −1.4
National averageFrance 29.5% +30.2 36.0% −7.4 3.9% +4.8 1.1% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+31.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Max MATHIASIN Elected Left (NFP) 10,672 36.2 —
Rody TOLASSY RN and allies 7,635 25.9 —
Nicolas CITADELLE Left (NFP) 4,361 14.8 —
Fred DESHAYES Left (NFP) 3,381 11.5 —
Eric CORIOLAN Others 1,644 5.6 —
Christopher PETITFOND Centre (Ensemble) 601 2.0 —
Sidjie ESDRAS Far left 545 1.9 —
Bernard ABDOUL-MANINROUDINE Others 271 0.9 —
Christèle PIGNAC RN and allies 191 0.7 —
Francis LALANNE Others 173 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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