Riding profile
Martinique — 2ème circonscription
The question
Martinique — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for another bloc?
Editorial read
Martinique — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Martinique, elected a member with another bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another bloc ahead at 48% vote share, against 34% for the LR right, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Marcellin NADEAU
Sits with Others
Current forecast
Others
Competitive
- Probability
- 90%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.7
- P(close race)
- 21%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Others | LR and allies | RN and allies | Left (NFP) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMartinique — 2ème circonscription | 47.6% | 34.0% | 12.8% | 5.5% |
| Provincial averageMartinique | 51.2% −3.6 | 12.7% +21.3 | 12.4% +0.5 | 20.1% −14.6 |
| National averageFrance | 3.9% +43.7 | 12.2% +21.8 | 36.0% −23.1 | 29.5% −24.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcellin NADEAU Elected | Others | 12,017 | 48.3 | — |
| Yan MONPLAISIR | LR and allies | 6,732 | 27.1 | — |
| Juvénal REMIR | RN and allies | 2,614 | 10.5 | — |
| Christian RAPHA | LR and allies | 1,888 | 7.6 | — |
| Alexandre VENTADOUR | Left (NFP) | 1,626 | 6.5 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Martinique — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Martinique — 1ère circonscriptionOthers Safe seatOpen →
- Martinique — 4ème circonscriptionOthers Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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