Riding profile

Guadeloupe — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Guadeloupe

The question

Guadeloupe — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

Guadeloupe — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Guadeloupe, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 46% vote share, against 25% for another bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Christian BAPTISTE

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 46.0%
  • Others 24.6%
  • RN and allies 19.8%
  • LR and allies 9.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) Others RN and allies LR and allies
HereGuadeloupe — 2ème circonscription 46.0%24.6%19.8%9.6%
Provincial averageGuadeloupe 59.3% −13.3 11.5% +13.1 19.1% +0.7 3.5% +6.1
National averageFrance 29.5% +16.5 3.9% +20.6 36.0% −16.2 12.2% −2.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+21.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christian BAPTISTE Elected Left (NFP) 10,903 41.3 —
Laurent PETIT RN and allies 4,563 17.3 —
Blaise ALDO LR and allies 2,291 8.7 —
Priscilla SYLVESTRE Others 1,895 7.2 —
Ludovic TOLASSY Others 1,761 6.7 —
Steve SALIM Others 1,685 6.4 —
Michel TOLA Left (NFP) 1,551 5.9 —
Patrick Marcellin GALAS Centre (Ensemble) 698 2.6 —
José AYASSAMI Others 324 1.2 —
Steeve CIREDERF-ROUYAR Left (NFP) 226 0.9 —
Roseline CHATELOT Others 182 0.7 —
Paméla POMMIER Others 173 0.7 —
Raymond MOLIA Others 126 0.5 —
Moïse AYASSAMY Left (NFP) 2 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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