Riding profile

Guyane — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Guyane

The question

Guyane — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for another bloc?

Editorial read

Guyane — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Guyane, elected a member with another bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another bloc ahead at 71% vote share, against 16% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean-Victor CASTOR

Sits with Others

Current forecast

Others

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
54.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Others 71.3%
  • LR and allies 16.4%
  • RN and allies 11.7%
  • Left (NFP) 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Others LR and allies RN and allies Left (NFP)
HereGuyane — 1ère circonscription 71.3%16.4%11.7%0.5%
Provincial averageGuyane 66.6% +4.7 8.8% +7.6 7.4% +4.3 2.0% −1.5
National averageFrance 3.9% +67.3 12.2% +4.2 36.0% −24.3 29.5% −29.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Others
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+54.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Victor CASTOR Elected Others 12,895 62.8 —
Boris CHONG SIT LR and allies 3,308 16.1 —
Yvane GOUA Others 2,158 10.5 —
Olivier TAOUMI RN and allies 1,916 9.3 —
Jean-Yves MIRAKOFF Left (NFP) 264 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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