Riding profile

La Réunion — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — La Réunion

The question

La Réunion — 1ère circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

La Réunion — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in La Réunion, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 43% vote share, against 33% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Philippe NAILLET

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
77%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
47%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.4%
  • RN and allies 33.1%
  • LR and allies 15.8%
  • Greens 4.3%
  • Others 2.4%
  • Far left 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Greens
HereLa Réunion — 1ère circonscription 43.4%33.1%15.8%4.3%
Provincial averageLa Réunion 42.4% +0.9 31.2% +1.9 14.5% +1.3 4.3%
National averageFrance 29.5% +13.9 36.0% −2.9 12.2% +3.6 2.1% +2.2

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.3 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Philippe NAILLET Elected Left (NFP) 19,186 46.3 —
Jean Jacques MOREL RN and allies 11,451 27.6 —
René-Paul VICTORIA LR and allies 5,670 13.7 —
Ludovic SAUTRON Greens 2,126 5.1 —
Gaëlle LEBON RN and allies 1,693 4.1 —
Gino PONIN BALLOM LR and allies 699 1.7 —
Paul TECHER Far left 450 1.1 —
Nadine MITRA Others 148 0.4 —
Krisna SAWOO Others 59 0.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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