Riding profile

La Réunion — 3ème circonscription

Circonscription française — La Réunion

The question

La Réunion — 3ème circonscription: will RN and allies lose this seat to LR and allies?

Editorial read

La Réunion — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in La Réunion, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 37% vote share, against 32% for the LR right, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Joseph RIVIERE

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Competitive

Probability
87%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
27%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 37.5%
  • LR and allies 32.4%
  • Left (NFP) 26.6%
  • Others 1.9%
  • Far left 1.1%
  • Sovereignists 0.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Left (NFP) Others
HereLa Réunion — 3ème circonscription 37.5%32.4%26.6%1.9%
Provincial averageLa Réunion 31.2% +6.3 14.5% +17.8 42.4% −15.8 5.0% −3.1
National averageFrance 36.0% +1.5 12.2% +20.1 29.5% −2.9 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joseph RIVIERE Elected RN and allies 13,360 31.6 —
Alexis CHAUSSALET Left (NFP) 10,076 23.8 —
Nathalie BASSIRE LR and allies 9,718 23.0 —
Monique BENARD LR and allies 4,207 9.9 —
Jean Jacques VLODY Left (NFP) 2,121 5.0 —
Didier HOAREAU RN and allies 2,083 4.9 —
Nicolas LEGENTIL Far left 540 1.3 —
Jean-Eric THEINE Sovereignists 229 0.5 —
Antoine FONTAINE Others 0 0.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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