Riding profile
La Réunion — 4ème circonscription
The question
La Réunion — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
La Réunion — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in La Réunion, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Emeline KBIDI
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
Left (NFP)
Toss-up
- Probability
- 77%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.4
- P(close race)
- 38%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Left (NFP) | RN and allies | LR and allies | Far left | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereLa Réunion — 4ème circonscription | 39.4% | 29.0% | 27.2% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageLa Réunion | 42.4% −3.1 | 31.2% −2.2 | 14.5% +12.7 | 1.5% +0.5 |
| National averageFrance | 29.5% +9.9 | 36.0% −7.0 | 12.2% +15.0 | 1.1% +0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeline KBIDI Elected | Left (NFP) | 22,696 | 42.3 | — |
| Jonathan RIVIERE | RN and allies | 14,797 | 27.6 | — |
| David LORION | LR and allies | 13,171 | 24.5 | — |
| Imrhane MOULLAN | LR and allies | 1,594 | 3.0 | — |
| Serge LATCHOUMANIN | Far left | 1,189 | 2.2 | — |
| Martine DIJOUX | Sovereignists | 233 | 0.4 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- La Réunion — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies CompetitiveOpen →
- La Réunion — 5ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 7ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 6ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 2ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- La Réunion — 1ère circonscriptionLeft (NFP) CompetitiveOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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