Riding profile

La Réunion — 4ème circonscription

Circonscription française — La Réunion

The question

La Réunion — 4ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

La Réunion — 4ème circonscription, a mixed riding in La Réunion, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for the RN and its allies, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Emeline KBIDI

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Toss-up

Probability
77%
Mean margin (pts)
10.4
P(close race)
38%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 39.4%
  • RN and allies 29.0%
  • LR and allies 27.2%
  • Far left 2.0%
  • Others 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies LR and allies Far left
HereLa Réunion — 4ème circonscription 39.4%29.0%27.2%2.0%
Provincial averageLa Réunion 42.4% −3.1 31.2% −2.2 14.5% +12.7 1.5% +0.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +9.9 36.0% −7.0 12.2% +15.0 1.1% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Emeline KBIDI Elected Left (NFP) 22,696 42.3
Jonathan RIVIERE RN and allies 14,797 27.6
David LORION LR and allies 13,171 24.5
Imrhane MOULLAN LR and allies 1,594 3.0
Serge LATCHOUMANIN Far left 1,189 2.2
Martine DIJOUX Sovereignists 233 0.4
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next