Riding profile

La Réunion — 7ème circonscription

Circonscription française — La Réunion

The question

La Réunion — 7ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

La Réunion — 7ème circonscription, a mixed riding in La Réunion, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 40% vote share, against 30% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Perceval GAILLARD

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
10.0
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 39.5%
  • RN and allies 29.6%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 17.0%
  • LR and allies 8.7%
  • Others 2.9%
  • Far left 1.3%
  • Sovereignists 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies
HereLa Réunion — 7ème circonscription 39.5%29.6%17.0%8.7%
Provincial averageLa Réunion 42.4% −2.9 31.2% −1.6 9.7% +7.3 14.5% −5.9
National averageFrance 29.5% +10.1 36.0% −6.4 20.6% −3.6 12.2% −3.6

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+10.0 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Perceval GAILLARD Elected Left (NFP) 14,851 29.6 —
Jean-Luc POUDROUX RN and allies 12,853 25.6 —
Thierry ROBERT Centre (Ensemble) 11,083 22.1 —
Cyrille HAMILCARO LR and allies 3,754 7.5 —
Karim JUHOOR Left (NFP) 2,854 5.7 —
Isaline TRONC Left (NFP) 2,651 5.3 —
Jean-Luc PAYET Far left 724 1.4 —
Nathalie DE BOISVILLIERS RN and allies 551 1.1 —
Richelain CATHERINE Others 479 0.9 —
Sandrine MOUKINE Sovereignists 461 0.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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