Riding profile

La Réunion — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — La Réunion

The question

La Réunion — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

La Réunion — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in La Réunion, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 45% vote share, against 25% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Karine LEBON

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 44.5%
  • RN and allies 24.9%
  • Others 18.3%
  • LR and allies 9.3%
  • Sovereignists 1.7%
  • Far left 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Others LR and allies
HereLa Réunion — 2ème circonscription 44.5%24.9%18.3%9.3%
Provincial averageLa Réunion 42.4% +2.1 31.2% −6.3 5.0% +13.3 14.5% −5.2
National averageFrance 29.5% +15.0 36.0% −11.1 3.9% +14.3 12.2% −2.9

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+19.7 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Karine LEBON Elected Left (NFP) 19,068 47.7 —
Christelle BEGUE RN and allies 8,513 21.3 —
Erick FONTAINE Others 6,406 16.0 —
Jean-Yves MOREL LR and allies 3,415 8.6 —
Claude MOUTOUALLAGUIN RN and allies 750 1.9 —
Alix MERA Sovereignists 699 1.8 —
Nelly ACTIF Far left 617 1.5 —
Fabienne FALDON Others 489 1.2 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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