Riding profile

La Réunion — 5ème circonscription

Circonscription française — La Réunion

The question

La Réunion — 5ème circonscription: a safe seat for the united left?

Editorial read

La Réunion — 5ème circonscription, a mixed riding in La Réunion, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the united left ahead at 50% vote share, against 34% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jean-Hugues RATENON

Sits with Left (NFP)

Current forecast

Left (NFP)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 50.0%
  • RN and allies 33.8%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 5.5%
  • Others 5.5%
  • Far left 2.7%
  • LR and allies 2.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) RN and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereLa Réunion — 5ème circonscription 50.0%33.8%5.5%5.5%
Provincial averageLa Réunion 42.4% +7.5 31.2% +2.6 9.7% −4.2 5.0% +0.5
National averageFrance 29.5% +20.5 36.0% −2.2 20.6% −15.0 3.9% +1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Left (NFP)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+16.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jean-Hugues RATENON Elected Left (NFP) 11,536 33.2 —
Joan DORO RN and allies 10,456 30.1 —
Anne CHANE-KAYE-BONE Left (NFP) 5,757 16.6 —
Léopoldine SETTAMA-VIDON Centre (Ensemble) 3,655 10.5 —
Jean Yves PAYET Far left 989 2.8 —
Jérémy LAUP Others 800 2.3 —
Alexandrine DUCHEMANE ARAYE Left (NFP) 443 1.3 —
Jean Dominique RAMASSAMY LR and allies 413 1.2 —
Dominique SAUTRON RN and allies 300 0.9 —
Lydia PICARD Others 287 0.8 —
Jean Paul LIMBE Others 132 0.4 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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