Riding profile

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon — Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon

Circonscription française — Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon

The question

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon — Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon — Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, a mixed riding in Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 43% vote share, against 42% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Stéphane LENORMAND

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
1.2
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Left (NFP) 43.2%
  • LR and allies 42.0%
  • RN and allies 12.9%
  • Others 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Left (NFP) LR and allies RN and allies Others
HereSaint-Pierre-et-Miquelon — Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 43.2%42.0%12.9%1.9%
Provincial averageSaint-Pierre-et-Miquelon 43.2% 42.0% 12.9% 1.9%
National averageFrance 29.5% +13.7 12.2% +29.8 36.0% −23.1 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.2 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stéphane LENORMAND Elected LR and allies 1,184 43.1 —
Frédéric BEAUMONT Left (NFP) 464 16.9 —
Marion LETOURNEL Left (NFP) 409 14.9 —
Patrick LEBAILLY Left (NFP) 400 14.6 —
Patricia CHAGNON RN and allies 291 10.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next