Riding profile

Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy

The question

Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscription: will Centre (Ensemble) lose this seat to LR and allies?

Editorial read

Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 38% vote share, against 36% for the centrist bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frantz GUMBS

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 37.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 36.0%
  • Others 13.7%
  • RN and allies 12.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others RN and allies
HereSaint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscription 37.5%36.0%13.7%12.7%
Provincial averageSaint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy 37.5% 36.0% 13.7% 12.7%
National averageFrance 12.2% +25.3 20.6% +15.4 3.9% +9.8 36.0% −23.3

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frantz GUMBS Elected Centre (Ensemble) 2,867 41.4 —
Alexandra QUESTEL LR and allies 1,378 19.9 —
Philippe PHILIDOR LR and allies 1,170 16.9 —
Clément CHAPDELAINE RN and allies 680 9.8 —
Ricardo BETHEL Others 399 5.8 —
Hervé MEUNIER Others 230 3.3 —
Lila KRIMI Others 102 1.5 —
Diane FELIX Others 93 1.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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