Riding profile

Mayotte — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Mayotte

The question

Mayotte — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Mayotte — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Mayotte, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 90% vote share, against 5% for the RN and its allies, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Estelle YOUSSOUFFA

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
85.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 89.8%
  • RN and allies 4.7%
  • Far left 3.7%
  • Others 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies RN and allies Far left Others
HereMayotte — 1ère circonscription 89.8%4.7%3.7%1.9%
Provincial averageMayotte 60.1% +29.6 21.8% −17.1 3.7% 2.2% −0.3
National averageFrance 12.2% +77.5 36.0% −31.3 1.1% +2.5 3.9% −2.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+85.1 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Estelle YOUSSOUFFA Elected LR and allies 13,640 79.5 —
Kambi Said SAID LR and allies 2,513 14.6 —
Mikhaël SAIFY Far left 684 4.0 —
Aurélia MAILLARD RN and allies 325 1.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

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Last model run
Cycle
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