Riding profile

Mayotte — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Mayotte

The question

Mayotte — 2ème circonscription: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Mayotte — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Mayotte, elected a member with the RN and its allies in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 39% vote share, against 30% for the LR right, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Anchya BAMANA

Sits with RN and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Toss-up

Probability
75%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
49%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • RN and allies 38.9%
  • LR and allies 30.5%
  • Centre (Ensemble) 26.3%
  • Others 2.5%
  • Left (NFP) 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

RN and allies LR and allies Centre (Ensemble) Others
HereMayotte — 2ème circonscription 38.9%30.5%26.3%2.5%
Provincial averageMayotte 21.8% +17.1 60.1% −29.6 26.3% 2.2% +0.3
National averageFrance 36.0% +3.0 12.2% +18.3 20.6% +5.7 3.9% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
RN and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.4 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anchya BAMANA Elected RN and allies 7,933 35.4 —
Mansour KAMARDINE LR and allies 6,226 27.8 —
Soula SAÏD-SOUFFOU Centre (Ensemble) 3,560 15.9 —
Madi-Boinamani MADI MARI Centre (Ensemble) 3,470 15.5 —
Kira Bacar ADACOLO Left (NFP) 552 2.5 —
Daniel Martial HENRY LR and allies 369 1.6 —
Manon MORENO RN and allies 164 0.7 —
Ahumad SALIME Others 122 0.5 —

Around the region

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Last model run
Cycle
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