Riding profile

Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription

Circonscription française — Wallis et Futuna

The question

Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?

Editorial read

Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Wallis et Futuna, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 71% vote share, against 24% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mikaele SEO

Sits with Centre (Ensemble)

Current forecast

Centre (Ensemble)

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Centre (Ensemble) 71.3%
  • LR and allies 23.7%
  • RN and allies 3.0%
  • Others 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Centre (Ensemble) LR and allies RN and allies Others
HereWallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription 71.3%23.7%3.0%2.0%
Provincial averageWallis et Futuna 71.3% 23.7% 3.0% 2.0%
National averageFrance 20.6% +50.7 12.2% +11.5 36.0% −33.0 3.9% −2.0

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
Centre (Ensemble)
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+47.5 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mikaele SEO Elected Centre (Ensemble) 4,281 62.3
Lavinia KANIMOA NÉE TAGANE LR and allies 1,248 18.1
Lauriane TIALETAGI EPOUSE VERGE Centre (Ensemble) 1,028 14.9
Otilone TOKOTUU LR and allies 320 4.7
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next