Riding profile
Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription
The question
Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription: a safe seat for the centrist bloc?
Editorial read
Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription, a mixed riding in Wallis et Futuna, elected a member with the centrist bloc in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the centrist bloc ahead at 71% vote share, against 24% for the LR right, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mikaele SEO
Sits with Centre (Ensemble)
Current forecast
Centre (Ensemble)
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 47.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Centre (Ensemble) | LR and allies | RN and allies | Others | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscription | 71.3% | 23.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageWallis et Futuna | 71.3% | 23.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| National averageFrance | 20.6% +50.7 | 12.2% +11.5 | 36.0% −33.0 | 3.9% −2.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikaele SEO Elected | Centre (Ensemble) | 4,281 | 62.3 | — |
| Lavinia KANIMOA NÉE TAGANE | LR and allies | 1,248 | 18.1 | — |
| Lauriane TIALETAGI EPOUSE VERGE | Centre (Ensemble) | 1,028 | 14.9 | — |
| Otilone TOKOTUU | LR and allies | 320 | 4.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Polynésie française — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Polynésie française — 1ere circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Polynésie française — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
fr_leg_next