Riding profile
Polynésie française — 2ème circonscription
The question
Polynésie française — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Polynésie française — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Polynésie française, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for another bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Nicole SANQUER
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | Others | RN and allies | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePolynésie française — 2ème circonscription | 47.6% | 41.8% | 7.3% | 3.2% |
| Provincial averagePolynésie française | 50.1% −2.4 | 39.9% +1.9 | 6.3% +1.0 | 3.6% −0.4 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +35.4 | 3.9% +37.8 | 36.0% −28.7 | 2.1% +1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicole SANQUER Elected | LR and allies | 12,986 | 49.1 | — |
| Steve CHAILLOUX | Others | 11,162 | 42.2 | — |
| Tutu TETUANUI | RN and allies | 1,240 | 4.7 | — |
| Tati SALMON | Greens | 1,047 | 4.0 | — |
| Jules Tehuiarii TARA | LR and allies | 19 | 0.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Polynésie française — 1ere circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Polynésie française — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Martinique — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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