Riding profile

Polynésie française — 2ème circonscription

Circonscription française — Polynésie française

The question

Polynésie française — 2ème circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?

Editorial read

Polynésie française — 2ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Polynésie française, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 48% vote share, against 42% for another bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nicole SANQUER

Sits with LR and allies

Current forecast

LR and allies

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • LR and allies 47.6%
  • Others 41.8%
  • RN and allies 7.3%
  • Greens 3.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

LR and allies Others RN and allies Greens
HerePolynésie française — 2ème circonscription 47.6%41.8%7.3%3.2%
Provincial averagePolynésie française 50.1% −2.4 39.9% +1.9 6.3% +1.0 3.6% −0.4
National averageFrance 12.2% +35.4 3.9% +37.8 36.0% −28.7 2.1% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · FR LEG_2024

Won by
LR and allies
Margin
0.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.9 pts

Detailed result · FR LEG_2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nicole SANQUER Elected LR and allies 12,986 49.1
Steve CHAILLOUX Others 11,162 42.2
Tutu TETUANUI RN and allies 1,240 4.7
Tati SALMON Greens 1,047 4.0
Jules Tehuiarii TARA LR and allies 19 0.1
Last model run
Cycle
fr_leg_next