Riding profile
Polynésie française — 1ere circonscription
The question
Polynésie française — 1ere circonscription: a safe seat for the LR right?
Editorial read
Polynésie française — 1ere circonscription, a mixed riding in Polynésie française, elected a member with the LR right in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 52% vote share, against 36% for another bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Moerani FREBAULT
Sits with LR and allies
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | Others | RN and allies | Greens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePolynésie française — 1ere circonscription | 52.1% | 35.7% | 8.9% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averagePolynésie française | 50.1% +2.0 | 39.9% −4.2 | 6.3% +2.5 | 3.6% −0.3 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +39.9 | 3.9% +31.7 | 36.0% −27.1 | 2.1% +1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moerani FREBAULT Elected | LR and allies | 18,456 | 53.9 | — |
| Tematai LE GAYIC | Others | 12,243 | 35.7 | — |
| James HEAUX | RN and allies | 2,168 | 6.3 | — |
| Jacky BRYANT | Greens | 1,404 | 4.1 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Polynésie française — 3ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Polynésie française — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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