Riding profile
Polynésie française — 3ème circonscription
The question
Polynésie française — 3ème circonscription: will Left (NFP) lose this seat to LR and allies?
Editorial read
Polynésie française — 3ème circonscription, a mixed riding in Polynésie française, elected a member with the united left in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the LR right ahead at 50% vote share, against 42% for another bloc, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mereana REID ABERLOT
Sits with Left (NFP)
Current forecast
LR and allies
Safe
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.2
- P(close race)
- 2%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| LR and allies | Others | Greens | RN and allies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePolynésie française — 3ème circonscription | 50.5% | 42.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averagePolynésie française | 50.1% +0.4 | 39.9% +2.4 | 3.6% +0.7 | 6.3% −3.5 |
| National averageFrance | 12.2% +38.2 | 3.9% +38.3 | 2.1% +2.2 | 36.0% −33.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 577 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · FR LEG_2024
Detailed result · FR LEG_2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mereana REID ABERLOT Elected | Others | 12,483 | 42.7 | — |
| Pascale HAITI EPOUSE FLOSSE | LR and allies | 12,006 | 41.1 | — |
| Naumi MIHURAA | LR and allies | 3,230 | 11.1 | — |
| Jules HAUATA | Greens | 1,507 | 5.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Polynésie française — 1ere circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Polynésie française — 2ème circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Wallis et Futuna — 1ère circonscriptionCentre (Ensemble) Safe seatOpen →
- Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélemy — 1ère circonscriptionLR and allies Safe seatOpen →
- Guadeloupe — 4ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Martinique — 3ème circonscriptionLeft (NFP) Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
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